Christmas a last hurrah for retailers

Retailers should make the most of a likely lucrative Christmas shopping period because next year won't be so profitable.

That's the view of Deloitte Access Economics, which believes the key drivers to spending over the past two years - cheap credit and increasing wealth through rising house prices - are "losing their punch".

In the meantime, it says there has been an improvement in confidence that may well be the "PM Turnbull effect", as well as better news on the jobs front and a hiatus in the world share market swings seen not so long ago.

Eight out of 10 retail bosses expect an increase in sales this Christmas compared with three-quarters surveyed last year, Deloitte's quarterly retail forecasts report shows.

"The bad news is the recent sugar hit won't necessarily see retail return to the kind of glory days it experienced pre-GFC," Deloitte partner David Rumbens says.

"Retail growth may taper from here."

Mr Rumbens forecasts retail sales growing by an inflation-adjusted 2.4 per cent in 2015/16 after peaking at 3.3 per cent in 2014/15, the strongest result since 2007/08 and prior to the global financial crisis.

He forecasts retail growth of 2.2 per cent in 2016/17.