Budget message getting murkier

If you thought the message of Joe Hockey's first budget was confusing, the build-up to his second equally will leave you scratching your head.

And coming against the backdrop of backbench unease with the government's leadership, there is speculation whether this may be the last budget for Hockey and his prime minister Tony Abbott.

It's increasingly becoming a case of good cop, bad cop.

In what can only be put down to an emotional outburst after his near-death experience of a failed leadership spill, Abbott suggested the May budget won't be so harsh.

He concedes the first budget was "bold and ambitious" and, with the benefit of hindsight, it did "bite off more than it could chew".

Probably more aimed at his backbench than voters, Abbott says he has learnt and changed.

The government won't be buying fights with the Senate that it can't win unless it is "really, really" necessary.

Yet Hockey, who is now bearing the brunt of criticism over the budget and speculation over his role as treasurer, is standing firm.

He repeatedly warns that Australia will never get back to a budget surplus if the government drops its savings measures, even though controversial measures such as the GP co-payment and higher education reforms remain well and truly stuck in the Senate.

While denying reports the budget is facing a $56 billion black hole, he warns that everyone needs to make a contribution to get government spending under control.

"If I could pull down from heaven a magic solution that fixes the budget ... I would do it," he said in one of many interviews this week.

Both good and bad cop are sticking with a promised tax cut of at least 1.5 per cent for small business and a family package that will include childcare reforms.

Both are worthy aims, but who will pay for them?

Abbott won't enter into the pre-budget game of guaranteeing no tax increases, but it is still unclear what will happen to the flagged paid parental leave levy.

The PPL scheme has been ditched but the government won't say whether the 1.5 per cent levy on the nation's top 3000 companies has gone, too.

Big business was never happy about paying the levy and even more so now. They believe they should also get a 1.5 per cent tax cut that was a pre-election promise.

What is confusing is that while the government is prepared to give small companies a much-needed tax cut, calls for savings through cutting tax concessions on things like superannuation and negative gearing are being brushed aside as being part of the white paper tax review discussion.

It means potential savings worth tens of billions of dollars through such cuts would at least be on hold until after the next election, if not longer.

It makes you wonder how worried we should be about the budget outlook.

Consumer confidence sank after the first budget and the government's standing in opinion polls slumped.

Whether or not Abbott and Hockey retain their jobs will be gauged by uneasy backbenchers on the response to this year's budget.

It adds a bit of spice to getting it right.