Expert warns Trump's 'gut instinct' could lead to war no-one wants

Professor Greg Barton of Deakin University told A Current Affair there was no "immediate" risk of Australia being drawn into a new war, but the potential was there.

"It's the unintended consequences and things escalating we've got to worry about," he said.

Tensions have risen between Iran and the US after rocket attacks on US military bases in Iraq were launched in retaliation for the assassination of high-ranging Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.

"The President Donald Trump, and the American administration, and the regime in Iran, don't want open conflict," Prof Barton said.

"Both sides know the consequences."

However, he cautioned that wars had erupted before after a steady situation "deteriorated or escalated".

If the conflict progresses beyond strikes in Iraq, or takes a further toll on US personnel, Prof Barton warned, it could "easily" lead to conflict between the US and Iran, and draw Australia in.

One faction he said would welcome such a war, was the slowly-rebuilding forces of ISIS, still engaged in conflict with Iraqi troops in Anbar Province and around Mosul.

The removal of international forces from Iraq, Prof Barton said, would see the insurgency come back to life.

This would be an outcome neither the US, Iraq, or Iran would welcome - but it could happen if open conflict erupts.

"What we've got to watch for is who's advising the President at the moment," Prof Barton said.

"If we start to see senior people around him urging caution and him respecting that, that would be a good sign.

"If he flies on gut instinct as he's inclined to do, the next step could be very dangerous."