Interest rates australia could rate rises lead to a recession 20231112 p5rg8y.html – Breaking News & Latest Updates 2026
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Could interest rate rises lead to a recession?

Natasha Clark

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60 Minutes

The 30-year-old previously represented her native New Zealand in white water rafting and was destined to compete in the Olympics. 

But Travers sold her dream along with her kayaking equipment, and is now working three jobs just to make the increasing mortgage repayments on her Western Sydney apartment.  

Kelly Travers competed in canoe slalom for New Zealand before being forced to give up the sport due to financial strain.  60 Minutes

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"I work, sleep and eat, that's about it," she told 60 Minutes' Tom Steinfort. 

Many Australians find themselves in a similar financial bind, sacrificing life aspirations to keep a roof over their head.

Since May last year the Reserve Bank's cash rate has rocketed from 0.1 percent to 4.35 per cent – the highest level in 12 years.

Australian homeowners are now paying the highest interest rates in 12 years. 60 Minutes

Sotheby's International Realty Sydney Boss Michael Pallier told Tom Steinfort he's seen a generation of young families lured into what has become a vicious debt trap. 

"It's the younger generation that are really being hit hard. The older generation are benefitting (from rate rises) because they have money in the bank and they're living on their investments," Pallier said.

As matters currently stand there is no end in sight for when the younger generation will no longer bear this financial burden. 

Michael Pallier from Sotheby's International Realty (Sydney) believes the younger generation are bearing the brunt of increased interest rates. 60 Minutes

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Veteran economist Stephen Koukoulas believes mortgage holders are now being unnecessarily punished by the RBA.

"Inflation's falling, and unemployment is going up," he said.

"It's a little bit like when you go to the doctor, they give you a course of medicine for seven days.

"You take the first few tablets – oh, I'm not fixed – and the doctor says go have a cup of tea."

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Amidst last week's interest rate rise looms the threat of recession.

"There's a real risk that the RBA has over egged it. They've over-tightened interest rates," he said. 

"It's close to a 50-50 possibility of a recession. I think it's a genuine chance."

Veteran economist Stephen Koukoulas believes mortgage holders are now being unnecessarily punished by the Reserve Bank. 60 Minutes

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The negative consequences of a recession include a sharp drop in consumer purchases, reduced sales and increasing unemployment.  

"It's a line-ball call. We'll be watching the data just like the Reserve Bank, to see whether that's a real probability," Koukoulas said.

For people like Travers it's a matter of survival.

"Day to day is very emotionally draining right now," she said. 

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